Germany’s opposition leader Friedrich Merz recently warned that Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine is directly tied to the strength and enforcement of international sanctions. His remarks came amid EU leaders deliberating a package of economic measures intended to limit access to key technology networks for Russia.
Merz made this observation during a press briefing at the Bundestag: “Sanctions will play an essential role. If Russia can continue funding its military machine with oil revenues and illicit imports, this war may go on and on.”
Merz has been an outspoken critic of what he sees as the inconsistent enforcement of sanctions by certain EU member states and non-aligned nations. He called upon them to strengthen dual use export controls, work more closely with the U.S. on secondary sanctions enforcement against companies or nations that assist Moscow circumvent restrictions, and better monitor dual-use exports from their nations.
Sanctions Mount
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western nations have implemented more than 15 rounds of sanctions targeting its banking sector, military suppliers, oil exports and elite individuals. Yet despite these measures, Russia has managed to shift part of its economy toward Asian markets while expanding shadow trading routes including Central Asia, Turkey and parts of the Middle East.
Merz noted that countering this adaptive strategy requires tighter international coordination: “We are seeing drones made with Western components being shipped into Russia through third countries; this must stop.”
EU Sanctions Package under Review
The European Commission is currently working on its 18th sanctions package, expected to include tighter restrictions on luxury exports and weapon production technology; and measures intended to curb Russian oil profits through refined petroleum product bans.
Germany as one of the EU’s largest economies has taken an outsized role in shaping its sanctions agenda, yet Berlin faces both internal and external pressure to go further in enforcing it. Although Merz’s CDU stands in opposition, his views reflect increasing public concern that sanctions may lose their deterrence power without strict enforcement measures in place.
Economic Strain versus Military Ambition
Western analysts have pointed out that although sanctions have severely damaged Russia’s economic outlook, Moscow continues to fund its military effort with revenues generated from oil, gas, and arms sales. According to IMF forecasts for 2025 GDP growth projections largely driven by domestic production as well as trade between Russia and China and India.
Merz cautioned that economic resilience does not automatically translate to long-term sustainability. He stated, “It’s not simply GDP that counts – it’s about what fuels tanks, builds drones, and pays soldiers.”
Merz was quick to underscore the urgency and necessity of stricter sanctions: As more European nations press for tighter sanctions against Russia, Merz concluded with this message of unity for Europe: “The West must remain united. By diluting or distorting sanctions further, more room for Putin to maneuver is given him. Sanctions work–but only if made airtight.”
By the end of this month, it is expected that the EU will unveil their next set of sanctions.